Unbiased Tail Estimation by an Extension of the Generalized Pareto Distribution

AMS classifications: 62G20; 62G32;bias;exchange rate;heavy tails;peaks-over-threshold;regular variation;tail index

The “Ultimate Prize” for Big Tobacco: Opening the Chinese Cigarette Market by Cigarette Smuggling

Novotny discusses a new study in PLoS Medicine that documents how British American Tobacco has exploited China's large cigarette smuggling problem

Unbiased Tail Estimation by an Extension of the Generalized Pareto Distribution

AMS classifications: 62G20; 62G32;

“Key to the Future”: British American Tobacco and Cigarette Smuggling in China

BACKGROUND: Cigarette smuggling is a major public health issue, stimulating increased tobacco consumption and undermining tobacco control measures. China is the ultimate prize among tobacco's emerging markets, and is also believed to have the world's largest cigarette smuggling problem. Previous work has demonstrated the complicity of British American Tobacco (BAT) in this illicit trade within Asia and the former Soviet Union. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This paper analyses internal documents of BAT available on site from the Guildford Depository and online from the BAT Document Archive. Documents dating from the early 1900s to 2003 were searched and indexed on a specially designed project database to enable the construction of an historical narrative. Document analysis incorporated several validation techniques within a hermeneutic process. This paper describes the huge scale of this illicit trade in China, amounting to billions of (United States) dollars in sales, and the key supply routes by which it has been conducted. It examines BAT's efforts to optimise earnings by restructuring operations, and controlling the supply chain and pricing of smuggled cigarettes. CONCLUSIONS: Our research shows that smuggling has been strategically critical to BAT's ongoing efforts to penetrate the Chinese market, and to its overall goal to become the leading company within an increasingly global industry. These findings support the need for concerted efforts to strengthen global collaboration to combat cigarette smuggling

From Transit Hub to Major Supplier of Illicit Cigarettes to Argentina and Brazil: The Changing Role of Domestic Production and Transnational Tobacco Companies in Paraguay Between 1960 and 2003

Background  Paraguay has reportedly been a major transit hub for illicit tobacco products since the 1960s, initially to supply markets in Argentina and Brazil and, more recently, other regional markets and beyond. However, to date there has been no systematic analysis, notably independent of the tobacco industry, of this trade including the roles of domestic production and transnational tobacco companies (TTCs). This article fills that gap by detailing the history of Paraguay’s illicit cigarette trade to Brazil and Argentina of TTC products and Paraguayan production between 1960 and 2003. The effective control of illicit cigarette flows, under Article 15 of the World Health Organization (WHO) Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) and the Protocol to Eliminate the Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products, requires fuller understanding of the changing nature of the illicit trade. Methods  We systematically searched internal industry documents to understand the activities and strategies of leading TTCs in Paraguay and subregion over time. We also mapped illicit trade volume and patterns using US government and UN data on the cigarette trade involving Paraguay. We then estimated Paraguay’s cigarette production from 1989 to 2003 using tobacco leaf flows from the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (UN Comtrade). Results  We identify four phases in the illicit tobacco trade involving Paraguay: 1) Paraguay as a transit hub to smuggle BAT and PMI cigarettes from the U.S. into Argentina and Brazil (from the 1960s to the mid-1970s); 2) BAT and PMI competing in north-east Argentina (1989–1994); 3) BAT and PMI competing in southern and southern-east Brazil (mid to late 1990s); and 4) the growth in the illicit trade of Paraguayan manufactured cigarettes (from the mid- 1990s onwards). These phases suggest the illicit trade was seeded by TTCs, and that the system of supply and demand on lower priced brands they developed in the 1990s created a business opportunity for manufacturing in Paraguay. Brazil’s efforts to fight this trade, with a 150% tax on exports to Latin American countries in 1999, further prompted supply of the illicit trade to shift from TTCs to Paraguayan manufacturers. Conclusion  This paper extends evidence of the longstanding complicity of TTCs in the illicit trade to this region and the consequent growth of Paraguayan production in the 1990s. Our findings confirm the need to better understand the factors influencing how the illicit tobacco trade has changed over time, in specific regional contexts, and amid tobacco industry globalization. In Paraguay, the changing roles of TTC and domestic production have been central to shifting patterns of illicit supply and distribution since the 1960s. Important questions are raised, in turn, about TTCs efforts to participate as legitimate partners in global efforts to combat the problem, including a leading role in data gathering and analysis

Impact of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and quit ratios in 27 European Union countries from 2006-2014

Background: Smoking is still highly prevalent in Europe. According to the WHO, tobacco control policies vary substantially across countries. The Tobacco Control Scale (TCS) was developed to quantify the implementation of tobacco control policies at country level in Europe. The objective was to assess the impact of tobacco control policies (quantified by TCS scores) on smoking prevalence and quit ratios and their relative changes from 2006-2014 in 27 European Union (EU27) countries. Methods: We conducted an ecological study at the country level. We used TCS scores in EU27 in 2007, and the prevalence of tobacco and quit ratios (No. ex-smokers/ No. ever smokers) data from the Eurobarometer surveys (2006 and 2014 waves). We analysed the relationship between the TCS scores and smoking prevalence and quit ratios and their relative changes by means of scatter plots, Spearman rank-correlation coefficients (rsp), and a multiple linear regression model adjusted for all TCS components. Results: In EU27, the smoking prevalence decreased by 14% (95%CI:7.3%-20.6%) (2006-2014) and varied from a relative decrease of 48.9% in Sweden to 0.4% in Bulgaria. The increase in the quit ratio in EU27 was 19.2% (95%CI:5.4%-33.1%) (2006-2014) and ranged from 125.8% in Sweden to 4.3% in Bulgaria. The correlation between TCS scores and smoking prevalence was negative (rsp=-0.444;p=0.02). A positive correlation was observed between TCS scores and quit ratios in 2014 (rsp=0.373;p=0.06) and in the relative changes in smoking prevalence (rsp=0.415;p=0.03). The percentage of smoking prevalence in 2014 explained by all TCS components in the regression model was 28.9% Conclusions: European countries with higher TCS scores, which indicates higher tobacco control efforts, have lower prevalence of smokers, higher quit ratios, and higher relative decreases in their smoking prevalence over the last decade. Funding: EC Horizon2020 HCO-6-2015 (EUREST-PLUS No. 681109); Government of Spain & European Regional Development Fund (RTICC RD12/0036/0053); Government of Catalonia (2014SGR999)

Impact of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and quit ratios in 27 European Union countries from 2006 to 2014

BACKGROUND: Tobacco use is still highly prevalent in Europe, despite the tobacco control efforts made by the governments. The development of tobacco control policies varies substantially across countries. The Tobacco Control Scale (TCS) was introduced to quantify the implementation of tobacco control policies across European countries OBJECTIVE: To assess the midterm association of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and quit ratios among 27 European Union (EU) Member States (EU27). METHODS: Ecological study. We used the TCS in EU27 in 2007 and the prevalence of tobacco and quit ratios data from the Eurobarometer survey (2006 (n=27 585) and 2014 (n=26 793)). We analysed the relationship between the TCS scores and smoking prevalence and quit ratios and their relative changes (between 2006 and 2014) by means of scatter plots and multiple linear regression models. RESULTS: In EU27, countries with higher scores in the TCS, which indicates higher tobacco control efforts, have lower prevalence of smokers, higher quit ratios and higher relative decreases in their prevalence rates of smokers over the last decade. The correlation between TCS scores and smoking prevalence (rsp=-0.444; P=0.02) and between the relative changes in smoking prevalence (rsp=-0.415; P=0.03) was negative. A positive correlation was observed between TCS scores and quit ratios (rsp=0.373; P=0.06). The percentage of smoking prevalence explained by all TCS components was 28.9%. CONCLUSION: EU27 should continue implementing comprehensive tobacco control policies as they are key for reducing the prevalence of smoking and an increase tobacco cessation rates in their population

Serological markers for prediction of response to anti-tumor necrosis factor treatment in Crohn's disease

peer reviewedOBJECTIVES: The use of monoclonal anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) antibodies (infliximab, Remicade) is a new therapeutic approach for severe refractory luminal or fistulizing, Crohn's disease (CD). However, up to 30% of patients do not respond to this treatment. So far, no parameters predictive of response to anti-TNT have been identified. Our aim was to determine whether serological markers ASCA (anti-Saccharomyces cerevisiae antibodies) or pANCA (perinuclear antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibodies) could identify Crohn's patients likely to benefit from anti-TNF therapy. METHODS: Serum samples of 279 CID patients were analyzed for ASCA and pANCA before anti-TNF therapy. A blinded physician determined clinical response at week 4 (refractory luminal CD) or week 10 (fistulizing CD) after the first infusion of infliximab (5 mg/kg). RESULTS: Overall, there was no relationship between ASCA or pANCA and response to therapy. However, lower response rates were observed for patients with refractory intestinal disease carrying the pANCA+/ASCA- combination, although this lacked significance (p = 0.067). CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of infliximab-treated patients, neither ASCA nor pANCA could predict response to treatment. However, the combination pANCA+/ASCA- might warrant further investigation for its value in predicting nonresponse in patients with refractory luminal disease